Predicting Eurovision based on Facebook likes – the results

I made a little experiment yesterday by trying to predict the outcome of the first Eurovision Song Contest semi-final. I used the number of Facebook likes to the country pages at and the number of views of the official videos. I was aware that it might not be the most accurate of predictions, since people can like and view a video but not vote for it due to the fact that you can’t vote for your own country and only countries competing in the semi-final could vote for the others.

Nevertheless, the overall rank I got was accurate to some degree. The countries I ranked 1-7 all got selected to the final. Then I failed with the others. The bottom three in my list, as expected, did not qualify. The tough part was the ones in the middle where the differences weren’t that big in the number of likes and views. Hungary, Moldova and Denmark eventually qualified.

The ranking based on Facebook likes was more accurate. The ten that qualified were all in my top 12 and I got all the top 7 in my list correct.

Rank: Facebook likes.

  1. Russia Q
  2. Cyprus Q
  3. Greece Q
  4. Romania Q
  5. Ireland Q
  6. Albania Q
  7. Iceland Q
  8. Finland
  9. Moldova Q
  10. Austria
  11. Hungary Q
  12. Denmark Q
  13. Latvia
  14. Israel
  15. Montenegro
  16. Switzerland
  17. San Marino
  18. Belgium

Let’s see if I can get even better results tomorrow, for semi-final 2 of the Eurovision Song Contest in Baku.

IOC video clip policy

Streaming video from the Olympics have been much debated. This FAQ from Swedish Television shows yet another example of IOC’s goofy control policies:

According to IOC rules, in order to view video clips you must:

> You must have Windows 98 SE or a newer version.

> You must have Windows Media Player version 9 installed.

> Your computer must allow cookies.

> You must register with username and password of your own choice, and a valid email address. Then you must log in using this information when you want to watch the clips. Registration is only necessary the first time you want to watch a clip.

> Your bandwitdh must be faster than 100 kbps. A bandwidth test of your connection will be performed.

> Your computer must be located within the Eurovision-area. An IP-test and control of your system clock will be performed to establish your time zone.

Observ that your registration is personal! You cannot send video clips to another computer. Illegitimate use of video clips will result in us blocking your VPN, Proxy and IP-address for use of streaming without notice.