Dan Gillmor, one of the leading thinkers in blogging and journalism, has moved to a new blog called Dan Gillmor on Grassroots Journalism – A conversation about the future of journalism “by the people, for the people.” RSS feed here.
Predictions always come back to haunt you, but that doesn’t stop bloggers and journalists from predicting what the next 12 months will bring. My own predictions? I’ll just go for one. 2005 will be the year of RSS. Companies will explore RSS in corporate communication, like I have introduced RSS as a means of distributing press releases and corporate information for Linklaters, the global law firm I am working at. It is still very much an experiment so far and we are using the services by Nooked. More info here. (Main RSS feed: http://www.nooked.com/news/feed/linklaters)
Here’s a collection of 2005 predictions.
Adam Polselli’s color predictions.
Andy Lark – Ten Ways Communications Will Change In 2005.
Business 2.0, Owen Thomas:
The PC becomes passé.
64-bit computing arrives.
Multicore becomes real.
Data centers heat up.
Open-source moves up the stack.
Grids begin to form inside companies.
Business 2.0, Erick Schonfeld:
1. The year of the DVR.
2. Apple introduces the iPhone.
3. Google searches everything.
4. Blogs go mainstream, and podcasting catches on.
5. Tech consolidation continues, to no avail.
6. Nanotech makes fuel cells feasible.
7. Chinese IPOs party like it’s 1999.
8. The word ‘passion’ is barred from all business meetings (please).
ClickZ – Buzz-informed predictions for 2005:
Blogs absorb flak, yet stay on track.
“I’ll watch the ads… for a price!”
All media become product-placement vehicles.
Wireless goes free (brought to you by Unilever).
There’ll be more integrated-branding misfires.
We’ll see a backlash to “sight, sound, and motion.”
1. Longhorn is no longer the answer (or even the question).
2. PDAs will become passe. Disconnected ones, that is.
3. More people will lose their jobs over their weblogs.
4. But more corporations will create official blogs.
5. Security FUD will drive IT policy.
6. Wi-Fi will be ubiquitous, but not in the workplace.
7. VoIP will be a mainstream technology for business users.
8. Wireless VoIP will still be niche.
9. Linux will be adopted in greater numbers by IT, but desktop Linux will not.
10. Moore’s Law will still be irrelevant.
1. We’ll all give something up.
2. We’ll all take something on.
3. If I make it to May 2, I’ll turn 50. Praise Murphy!
4. Identity will remain a mess.
5. RSS will remain a success.
6. A major on-air radio talk show host from the left or right will realize that he or she can build a new market for his or her work by allowing people to download it in MP3 format linked into an RSS feed and listened to on an iPod.
7. A political leader, a candidate for some office, will emerge from the blogosphere. People will call this open source candidacy.
8. The term open source will come to mean nothing.
9. Cory Doctorow will sue Adam Curry for saying “Boing” when he’s happy. (Postscript: Mark F at BB asks if Curry cures Alzheimers. Does that mean they aren’t suing?)
10. New tools for blogging will emerge allowing more complex structures of ideas to flow publicly through the Internet.
11. More people will call the Internet the Inkernet.
12. There will be a wifi signal at the top of the Empire State Building and in every truck stop in the US. Also in every Best Buy. McDonald’s won’t embrace the Internet.
China. (It will be obvious.)
“Branding” will be the corporate buzz word of 2005, and for good reason.
Mainstream business will finally “get” blogs.
The home network will be controlled from the home entertainment center.
We will (almost) all download a movie this year – most for the first time.
Even more of the routine functions we do every day, like finding a parking space, will be done online.
Wireless networks will be everywhere, at work, in public and in many homes.
Good photography will lead the way in making Web sites more attractive.
We’ll be watching “TV” commercials on major Web sites by next Christmas.
More Web sites will add search tools, as they become more complex.
Fimoculous.com – Digital media predictions:
1) Content will continue to unbundle itself.
2) The line between communication and publishing will continue to be less distinct.
3) Media will continue to be manipulated.
Fortune – 10 tech trends to watch in 2005.
Forty Media – web design in 2005.
iMediaConnection – e-Marketing.
Media Guerilla – Blogging predictions.
Neville Hobson – Year of the corporate blog.
OnlineSpin – The Coming Year of Hyperfragmentation:
Clients Get Smart About Fragmentation.
The Big DVR Backlash.
Satellite Radio and Digital Audio Players Converge.
Self-Service Drives Growth.
Internet Radio Goes Mainstream.
Internet Upfronts Are Formally Established.
Consumer Content Creation Cacophony.
The FCC Exceeds Its Mandate.
Consolidation Mania 2005.
PaidContent.org – readers’ predictions and hopes for digital media.
Red Herring – Top 6 technology trends for 2005.
The Blog Herald – about blogging.
Trendwatching.com – “Masters of the Youniverse”
A recent blog survey by Perseus revealed that the majority of bloggers are women (56%) but a new survey by Pew Internet shows that 57% of all US blog creators are men. The two studies were performed quite differently. Pew made two telephone surveys with in total 1,861 internet users in the US, while Perseus surveyed 3,634 blogs on eight leading blog-hosting services. Perseus analysis “does not cover nonhosted blogs – blogs that individuals maintain on their own servers using their own tools”.
I am not an expert on statistics but it seems that Pew’s survey draws conclusions from a very small number of respondents. If they surveyed 1,861 internet users and 7 per cent of them had created a blog, that is only 130 people (74 male, 56 female).
Swedish media monitoring company Observer owns Bacon’s Information who monitors media sources for clients in the US. In November, Observer decided to start monitoring 10 influential Swedish blogs and now Bacon’s have announced they will start monitoring “the most reputable online news blogs” in America. According to the press release:
“Initially, these will be blogs of active journalists, but as our in-house researchers scrutinize and approve additional news-related blogs, we will add to the scope of our coverage.”
According to bloggers, Bacon’s will be monitoring just 250 blogs. Darren Barefoot has a post on why this is a crappy idea. Jeremy Pepper thinks it’s not. Personally I think that the quality approach (vs quantity) is ok for the non-tech savvy PR people, but any PR practitioner with a little more knowledge about the blogosphere would obviously add services like Feedster, PubSub and Technorati.
Purple is the new pink. Redesigning your blog? Check out Adam Polselli’s color forecast for 2005, with inspiration from “Gap’s sparkly scarves and Banana Republic’s metallic thread coats and skirts”. Polselli predicts what colors will be popular during the year.