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Predicting Eurovision based on Facebook likes – the results

I made a little experiment yesterday by trying to predict the outcome of the first Eurovision Song Contest semi-final. I used the number of Facebook likes to the country pages at Eurovision.tv and the number of views of the official videos. I was aware that it might not be the most accurate of predictions, since people can like and view a video but not vote for it due to the fact that you can’t vote for your own country and only countries competing in the semi-final could vote for the others.

Nevertheless, the overall rank I got was accurate to some degree. The countries I ranked 1-7 all got selected to the final. Then I failed with the others. The bottom three in my list, as expected, did not qualify. The tough part was the ones in the middle where the differences weren’t that big in the number of likes and views. Hungary, Moldova and Denmark eventually qualified.

The ranking based on Facebook likes was more accurate. The ten that qualified were all in my top 12 and I got all the top 7 in my list correct.

Rank: Facebook likes.

  1. Russia Q
  2. Cyprus Q
  3. Greece Q
  4. Romania Q
  5. Ireland Q
  6. Albania Q
  7. Iceland Q
  8. Finland
  9. Moldova Q
  10. Austria
  11. Hungary Q
  12. Denmark Q
  13. Latvia
  14. Israel
  15. Montenegro
  16. Switzerland
  17. San Marino
  18. Belgium

Let’s see if I can get even better results tomorrow, for semi-final 2 of the Eurovision Song Contest in Baku.

Posted in Marketing, Statistics.

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